In April 2019, China’s total import and export value was US$373.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Among them, exports were US$193.5 billion, down 2.7% year-on-year; imports were US$179.7 billion, up 4% year-on-year. The trade surplus was 13.8 billion US dollars, narrowing 47%.
China’s mainland media “Securities Daily” reported on May 12, Beijing time, China’s imports and exports to the United States fell sharply. Since 2019, the negative impact of Sino-US trade friction has gradually emerged, and the amount of China’s imports and exports to the United States has declined significantly. From January to April, China’s imports and exports to the United States reached US$161.2 billion, down 15.8% year-on-year. Among them, exports fell by 9.7% and imports fell by 30.4%. The decline in imports is much greater than the decline in exports. China’s import and export volume to the United States accounted for about 14% of China’s foreign trade, down to the current 11%.
Import and export to the EU and other countries and regions maintained steady growth. In the first four months of this year, China’s import and export to the EU was US$220.1 billion, up 5.9% year-on-year; among them, exports increased by 8.3% and imports increased by 2.5%. China’s imports and exports to ASEAN, Latin America and Africa increased by 3.4%, 9.1% and 3.3% respectively. It is particularly noteworthy that China’s trade in the countries along the “Belt and Road” has maintained rapid growth. According to data from the Canton Fair, China’s exports to the countries along the “Belt and Road” have reached US$10.63 billion, an increase of 9.9%, accounting for the total turnover. 35.8%.
The analysis believes that China’s import and export may maintain a low growth in the short term, and the trade surplus may narrow.
Import and export may maintain a low growth in the short term. Recently, the European Commission has further lowered the economic growth forecast of the EU and the Eurozone. The US economic growth is mainly driven by the recessionary surplus. The weak external demand is unlikely to change significantly in the short term. China’s economy may remain weak and stable in the short term, coupled with the high base effect in the same period last year. In the short term, the growth rate of imports and exports is unlikely to improve significantly. However, with the steady advancement of the “Belt and Road Initiative” initiative, China’s import and export trade with countries along the route is expected to maintain steady growth.